1. Field of the Invention
The present invention relates generally to the field of monitoring telecommunications equipment. More specifically, the present invention relates to the field of projecting the functionality of telecommunication switches over time.
2. Description of the Related Art
Telecommunications systems use a number of circuits. Some examples of circuits in use are fiber optic, DS3, T1, or any other kind of circuitry connected into a network.
Circuits fail for a variety of reasons and in different ways. First, the circuit could fail as the result of some sort of sudden unintended event. One example of this is a technician tripping over and dislodging a cable, among other similar types of random events. Sudden unintended failures like this are difficult, if not impossible to predict or prepare for. Another example of a sudden unpredictable failure might involve bumping of a buffer card which can cause errors.
These types of mishaps cannot be predicted with any certainty.
A second kind of circuit failure, however, is more predictable. This type of failure is more of a slow death. Circuits of all kinds degrade in service over time. Taking fiber optics as an example, the fibers may become dirty, causing them to gradually fail. Other kinds of circuits will fail over time as well for a variety of reasons. When a circuit fails due to gradual degradation, these circuits will go from being operational all the time, to being operational most of the time, to being operational only some of the time, and then being completely defunct.
Unexpected circuit failures are problematic. When a circuit fails unexpectedly, a system may have to be taken down for days in order to fix the circuit, or circuits, involved. This is costly. It also angers customers of the service provider. Nothing angers customers more than when they are unable to complete tasks because of some kind of system breakdown. These customers may become so bothered that they will terminate a business relationship. This can cost the provider not only lost business, but also damaged reputation.
There is presently no good way to predict gradual circuit failures. This is because most equipment, e.g., telecommunications switches, usually have alarms which are triggered only after a circuit fails at some extremely high threshold level. A craftsperson may detect a few alarms when in fact thousands have reported on the network element. A few alarms are often not noticed or ignored, particularly when they report sporadically.
This lofty error requirement is designed to avoid false error reports. All error reports are not indicative of a bad circuit. There can be other explanations for errors, such as service maintenance, etc. Thus, an error log might include 400 errors when there is actually nothing wrong with the circuit. Systems administrators do not want to repair circuits that are not bad, or waste time checking out faulty reports. Thus, the threshold has been set higher to avoid false reports by these still good circuits.
This has its costs, however. An elevated threshold prevents the administrator from gleaning any helpful knowledge from the errors detected which fall below the alarm level. This under-the-threshold error information is maintained in logs in an internal database associated with the piece of equipment. There it remains, unused, until it is scheduled for deletion because there is no way in the prior art to adequately use these logs.